November 25th and 28th mark the peak shopping periods of the year, with Black Friday and Cyber Monday presenting significant revenue opportunities for retailers to conclude the year on a high note. Last year, consumers shattered previous records, with spending exceeding expectations on these two pivotal shopping days. Thanksgiving online spending also reached a new milestone, surpassing the $1 billion mark for the first time.Online spending is rapidly escalating across Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday. However, the trend in offline spending differs. Let’s delve into how consumers allocated their budgets on these major shopping days and their potential spending patterns in 2016.Firstly, Black Friday, the largest retail day of the year, has experienced unusual spending fluctuations from 2011 to 2015. Prior to 2011, Black Friday typically saw a steady increase in commercial activity.Stores have progressively opened earlier each year, with some even choosing to open on Thanksgiving. This decision might explain the significant year-on-year shifts in spending, with Black Friday experiencing a roughly $10 billion fluctuation over the past five years. In 2011, Black Friday reached a robust $52.4 billion, which escalated to $59.1 billion in 2012. Despite this surge, the total spending dipped to $57.4 billion in 2013. In 2014, it plummeted to $50.9 billion. However, in 2015, it saw a remarkable increase of over 100% to $67.6 billion, the highest amount ever spent on a Black Friday. This surge followed a significant decline in 2014. Economically, the average American’s income is increasing in 2016, suggesting a potential for another substantial increase in Black Friday spending, particularly online.Cyber Monday, the pinnacle of online shopping in the United States, may see a shift in 2016. Online spending during Black Friday is rapidly approaching that of Cyber Monday, which could indicate a significant change in consumer holiday shopping habits.Black Friday is poised to dominate the online market, making Cyber Monday a secondary consideration rather than an extension of Black Friday shopping. In 2011, Cyber Monday maintained a $500 million lead over Black Friday. By 2012, this lead expanded to nearly $1 billion, contracting slightly in 2013. However, it surged again in 2014 to a $1.14 billion difference. In 2015, Black Friday and Cyber Monday were virtually neck-and-neck in terms of online spending.Cyber Monday’s lead over Black Friday dropped to just $50 million, a significant amount but relatively small when comparing the total online spending figures of $2.98 billion and $2.93 billion. Nonetheless, this trend is strictly limited to online spending.Despite Black Friday not quite surpassing Cyber Monday online, it remains the dominant shopping holiday. The graph comparing total Black Friday and Cyber Monday spending illustrates that Cyber Monday is a minor blip in the context of consumer spending habits.On the other hand, Black Friday commands more spending than some countries, ranking as the 99th wealthiest country in the world immediately following Nepal. This underscores the significance of Black Friday in sales, surpassing Cyber Monday.Interestingly, Thanksgiving is also emerging as a significant shopping holiday. Thanks to retailers opening a day early for Black Friday sales, Thanksgiving is becoming a major shopping event. Although it holds about 33% of the online spending power of Black Friday and Cyber Monday, the more than 100% growth in five years is notable.This trend suggests two possibilities:
Consumers are increasingly opting for Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday for online shopping
Consumers are spending more on Thanksgiving than in previous years
Whichever scenario is accurate, it’s a win for retailers. Either you attract more customers with similar spending levels or the same number of customers with significantly higher spending. The clear beneficiary is online retail, as consumer enthusiasm spills over from Black Friday to the surrounding days.It’s possible that we may soon witness a Thanksgiving-Black-Friday-Cyber-Monday weekend, merging all major spending holidays into one grand event. If this trend materializes, as our data indicates it will likely do within the next five to ten years, we can anticipate a substantial shift.Several insights can be drawn from this data. Firstly, physical and online retailers have immense potential for profit from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday. Each day presents an opportunity for increased consumer spending, indicating a significant growth opportunity for retail companies.Secondly, B2B companies may experience stagnation or even a decline in sales. As resources and focus shift toward consumer goods for the winter holidays, there may be less attention on B2B companies or lead-based businesses in general. (This is a defining aspect of the attention economy.) Thirdly, Cyber Monday is not the sole occasion for online retailers to offer sales.This year, Black Friday may finally outpace Cyber Monday in online sales. Retailers should prepare accordingly to avoid falling behind competitors.Seeking additional advice to prepare for Black Friday? Explore our blog post for three valuable tips to refine your Black Friday e-commerce strategy!Is your business more profitable between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday? What is your sales strategy?Share your insights in the comments!2015 Online Shopping Trends (Fortune) Black Friday Online Spending (Statista) Black Friday Total Spending (Statistic Brain)
